How will a depleted England squad fare when they travel to Germany at 7.45pm on ITV?

Wednesday’s fixture marks the first game in charge for Gareth Southgate since his position was made permanent at the end of last November. His brief spell in charge following Big Sam ignominious dismissal was a mixed bag; a tame 2-0 victory over Malta and a more impressive 3-0 win against Scotland were joined by a goalless visit to Slovenia and a 2-2 draw against Spain. On paper that last result sounds incredibly promising. Yet England actually managed to blow a 2-0 lead in the final 7 minutes if the game, somewhat undermining the team’s achievement.



Ideally this trip to Dortmund would give Southgate the chance to work out his best starting 11 before heading into the second half of the World Cup qualifying campaign. Unfortunately for the embryonic manager England are without some big names this week. Raheem Sterling will likely be absent after a busy schedule with Man City, while Wayne Rooney, Harry Kane and Daniel Sturridge are all out injured.

That doesn’t particularly bode well for the country’s chances up front. Southgate has three strikers to choose from: Jamie Vardy, Marcus Rashford and Jermain Defoe. This time last year Vardy was not only Leicester’s hero, but one of the scorers in England’s surprise 3-2 Berlin defeat of Germany; now he has just 10 goals in all competitions, though has improved since Claudio Ranieri was given the boot – he sits at a Super Mega PGM of 17-21. Similarly Rashford, who has a spread of 16-20, has struggled to match his explosive debut year, scoring 7 goals so far this season. Of the trio Defoe is in the best form, despite Sunderland sitting at the bottom of the table, his 14 goals giving him a Super Mega PGM of 18-22 ahead of his 56th cap.

Germany are also missing a few key figures, namely Manuel Neuer, Julian Draxler, Mesut Ozil and Mario Gomez. Yet there is perhaps the sense that Joachim Low isn’t treating the friendly with the upmost seriousness. That’s because Lukas Podolski – who currently plays for Galatasaray and has a Super Mega PGM of 18-22 – is going to captain his country in his 130th and final international game. That’s not necessarily a knock against Podolski, but rather that Low seems to have turned the fixture into an impromptu testimonial for the former Arsenal forward. Elsewhere RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner could get his German cap, and sits at a Super Mega PGM of 28-33, while Bayern Munich’s Thomas Muller is at 31-37.

Given the players on offer, and the form of their replacements, it is hard to see Southgate getting a result at the Westfalenstadion, with Spreadex offering a Germany/England Goal Supremacy spread of 0.7-0.9 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.7-2.9.