Sports Blog 22/09/2015: League Cup 3rd Round Preview – Aston Villa vs Birmingham, Tuesday 22nd September 2015

It’s the first Second City derby since 2011, as Aston Villa host Birmingham in the League Cup 3rd round at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1.

Despite a sense of optimism going into the new season, with an FA Cup final-reaching Tim Sherwood at the helm from the start, Aston Villa have struggled to muster much form in their first 6 league games, failing to adequately fill the gaps left by Fabian Delph and Christian Benteke. A 1-0 opening game victory over Bournemouth has depressingly being Villa’s high point, with a 2-2 draw with Sunderland at the end of August surrounding either side by defeats to Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Leicester and, most recently, West Brom.



That Leicester game especially showed Villa’s defensive weakness, losing a 2-0 lead in the final 18 minutes of the game as the Foxes came back to win 3-2. Similar issues arose in Villa’s 2nd round League Cup tie against Notts County, a game that ended 5-3 after extra time; a victory, sure, but a bittersweet one since Sherwood’s men conceded 3 against a League 2 side.

In terms of Villa’s summer signings, none have really shone in the way Sherwood has needed them to. Scott Sinclair, taken off Manchester City’s hands for around £2.5 million has arguably been their best acquisition, scoring 2 goals in the league and a hat-trick against Notts County to make him far and away Villa’s top scorer this season (in fact he is their only player to have got more than one goal this season), and is at 17/4 to score first on Tuesday night. Rudy Gestede, meanwhile, has failed to build on his debut winning goal against Bournemouth (but is at a Player Goal Minutes spread of 25-28), whilst Jordan Ayew has barely made an impact.



In comparison Birmingham have gotten off to a better start this season, even with a rather muted summer for transfers; they sit in 7th, with 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. Last season’s top goalscorer Clayton Donaldson, at 7/1 to score first, is currently holding onto that title, even if he has only managed 3 goals in 7 games. Jacques Maghoma, meanwhile, has been the pick of the Blues’ signings, scoring once in the league and grabbing the opener against Bristol Rovers in the 1st round of the League Cup (a game Birmingham went on to win 2-1 before beating Gilingham 2-0 in the 2nd).

Despite divergent form, Villa likely have the quality, and the need for the win, to beat the Blues, leading Spreadex to offer an Aston Villa/Birmingham Goal Supremacy spread of 0.4-0.6 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.65-2.85 and, in anticipation of fireworks, a Bookings spread of 40-44.