Sports Blog 23/02/2015: Tournament Preview – Six Nations 2015 Round 3, Saturday 28th February to Sunday 1st March 2015

After brief break, the 2015 Six Nations resumes on Saturday, with Round 3 seeing matchups at the bottom, middle and top of the table.

Things kick off early Saturday afternoon, with both Scotland and Italy desperate to notch their first win of the championship and try and avoid the dreaded wooden spoon. Scotland have been unlucky to remain victory-less at this point in the competition, pushing both France and Wales closer than many would have thought before the tournament began. And impressively they are second only to England in terms of metres gained in the first two games due to the performance of Stuart Hogg, the player with the most metres gained in the tournament so far. With the home advantage at the newly refurbished Murrayfield, Scotland should feel confident they can overturn Italy, with 9 wins to the Azzuri’s 6 in past competitions, even if they are only at an Outright Index of 4-6.

Italy have been comfortably dispatched of in each game, and have only scored 20 points compared to the 73 they have conceded, easily the worst deficit out of the 6 teams. On top of this they will be missing Martin Castrogiovanni, after the prop was bitten on the nose by a friend’s dog. A story like that effectively sums up Italy’s campaign, and given how good Scotland have been without winning, Italy will have to be a lot better than they have been so far to avoid defeat on Saturday, especially at huge 5000/1 fixed odds to win the tournament. Our Spreadex traders suspect that such a recovery is unlikely, and are favouring the Scots at a Scotland/Italy Supremacy spread betting quote of 10-13, with a Total Points spread of 39-42.



We then turn our sights on the middle of the table, as France and Wales fight to keep their tournaments alive after disappointing defeats to Ireland and England respectively. A narrow win against Scotland in Paris then saw France succumb to a clinical performance by Ireland, leaving Phillipe Saint-Andre’s side in a very precarious position. They have only scored 1 try so far this tournament, from Romain Taofifenua in Dublin, and will be looking to Morgan Parra to inspire a win after he caused trouble for Ireland towards the end of that fixture a fortnight ago. France also have history on their side, beating Wales 9 times to 6 in the history of the Six Nations.

However, Wales will have a point to prove and unlike France are on the upswing after a slim victory over Scotland in Round 2. After that bitter defeat to England in Cardiff, Wales dusted themselves off, holding back a surging Scotland to get their first win. Yet Wales have conceded the most penalties this tournament, and given that this has been France’s bread and butter this championship Wales may be pushed if they continue this trend. The biggest news around the Wales camp will be whether George North will play; the Welsh medical team intervened to prevent North from playing for Northampton this weekend, suggesting that the national side are ensuring their star man can make an appearance on Saturday evening. France just beat Wales for on Spreadex’s Outright Index, at 19-22 and 18-21 respectively, meaning our traders have given France a tight home advantage at a France/Wales Supremacy spread betting quote of 2-5, with a Total Points spread of 36-29.

Sunday then sees the big match of the weekend, as Ireland and England vie to take control of the tournament. The winner of this will be the hot favourite for the championship, as well as the one remaining team left eligible for the Grand Slam AND the Triple Crown. After easily dismissing a poor Italy without stretching themselves too much Ireland then hosted France at the Aviva Stadium; Joe Schmidt’s men saw off the visitors’ late push to extend their streak to 9 wins on the trot. Johnny Sexton has been on fire, scoring 15 points against France despite a knock that saw Ireland fans worry that he was going to go the way of George North. However, England’s George Ford has warned his teammates against focusing on Sexton, saying that Ireland have just has much talent elsewhere. Ireland have 8 wins to England’s 7 in previous head to heads, and will want to make-up for last year’s 13-10 defeat at Twickenham last year.

Whilst Ireland may benefit from the home advantage, England have already faced down Wales in Cardiff, and after sailing past the dismal Italy side, will be ready pull off another away victory in Dublin. They have scored the most points in the tournament so far, at 68, but have conceded more points than Ireland, at 33 and 14 respectively. The game against Italy saw excellent performances from Jonathan Joseph (odds on favourite to be the tournament’s top try scorer at 4/7) and George Ford, top point scorer so far with 26 points. Given their emphatic wins in the past 2 rounds, England remain favourites for the tournament at an Outright spread of 46-49 compared to Ireland’s 39-42. However, the intimidating atmosphere of the Aviva Stadium has meant our Spreadex traders have a narrow Ireland/England Supremacy spread betting quote of 0-3, with our clients split on which side to back.