Sports Blog 23/02/2016: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League Last 16 1st Leg, Tuesday 23rd February 2016

It’s an all-star line-up for this Tuesday’s Champions League last 16 ties, with Arsenal hosting a bombastic Barcelona whilst Bayern Munich travel to a resurgent Juventus.

In what is literally the worst draw possible Arsenal face the unenviable task of toppling the reigning champions Barcelona when they meet at 7.45pm on BT Sport Europe. Having to face arguably the world’s best side is a suitably symbolic punishment for the Gunners’ failings in the group stages, a karmic punch after they barely scrapped their way through on goal difference following their losses to Dinamo Zagreb, Olympiakos and, most painfully, their 5-1 thumping at the hands of Bayern Munich. Frustratingly for Arsenal they appear to have entered an inconsistent patch at just the wrong time, following up a vital 2-1 win over Leicester with a calendar-clogging, replay-requiring 0-0 draw with Hull in the FA Cup.



Fans will be hoping the tame performance on Saturday means there is plenty in the tank ahead of Tuesday’s match, because Arsenal are going to need it. Barcelona haven’t lost a game since the 3rd October; in fact they breezed through the Champions League group stages unbeaten, are through to the Copa del Rey final thanks to an 8-1 (on aggregate) victory over Gary Neville’s Valencia, and are 8 points clear at the top of La Liga with 67 goals scored. Of course they are propelled by perhaps the greatest front-line ever assembled. Lionel Messi, despite being injured for 8 weeks, still has 27 goals this season and sits at a Super Mega PGM of 48-56, whilst Neymar, on 23, has a Super Mega PGM of 32-38. Yet it is Luis Suarez, so nearly an Arsenal player himself, who has been Barca’s brightest star, managing an incredible 41 goals and 16 assists to head into the 1st leg at a Super Mega PGM of 39-46.

As Arsene Wenger has said in the run up to the game, ‘no team is perfect’ and the Gunners of course have a chance of beating the Spanish side. Yet the Catalan conquistadors are as close to perfect as a team can get, and head into Tuesday as clear favourites at a Barcelona/Arsenal (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.6-0.8 with a Total Goals spread of 3-3.2.

Tuesday’s other tie sees two European giants do battle, with a dominant Bayern Munich attempting to crack Juventus’ typically tight backline at 7.45pm on BT Sport 2. Like Barcelona Bayern have only lost twice this season, once in the Bundesliga (to Borussia Monchengladbach) and once in Europe (to Arsenal; Bayern certainly got their revenge, however). Their domestic form sees them with an 8 point gap at the top of the table, whilst in the DFB-Pokal they are set for a semi-final fixture against Werder Bremen in April. And in Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski Bayern have their own mini-version of Barca’s formidable front 3, the German and Polish forwards at 24 and 32 goals respectively. All this despite (or, perhaps, because of) the knowledge that Pep Guardiola will be leaving at the end of the season!



After a disastrous start to the season that saw them lose 4 and draw 3 of their first 10 Serie A games Juve have recovered in style, winning 15 league games in a row to ascend to the top of the table, that run only ended by a 0-0 draw in Bologna last Friday. Even more astonishingly the Italian champions haven’t conceded in their last 9 games, including 1-0 and 3-0 wins over Lazio and Inter Milan in the Coppa Italia. Things were looking equally strong in the Champions League, with 3 wins (including the double over Manchester City) and 2 draws putting them in pole position; however, a last game loss against Sevilla sent them to 2nd place, in the process setting up a punishing last 16 tie against their German counterparts.

It will be interesting to see how Tuesday’s game plays out; Bayern scored 19 goals in the group stages, whilst Juve haven’t conceded in 9. In that potential war of attrition Spreadex just about fancy the German side, offering a Bayern Munich/Juventus (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.25-0.45 with a Total Goals spread of 2.2-2.4.

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