It’s only the quarter-finals and the Australian Open has already packed in enough shock-exits for the entire year!

Men’s Singles
With Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic falling in the 4th and 2nd rounds respectively, and the likes of Kei Nishikori, Gael Monfil, Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem and Tomas Berdych all exiting at various points already, there are only 3 of the ATP’s top 10 ranked players left. And, better yet, none of those sit atop Spreadex’s Outright Index, where the winner gets 60 points, the runner-up 40, the losing semi-finalists 20 and the defeated quarter-finalists 10!



No, that honour goes to Roger Federer, who sits at an Outright Index spread of 32.5-35.5 with a fixed odds price of 5/2. The Swiss maestro has had one of the tougher routes to the quarters, beating Berdych and Nishikori in his last 2 matches, and, with the top 2 seeds out of the competition Federer is favourite to win his first major title since Wimbledon 2012. His opponent is the man who beat Murray, the 251st ranked Mischa Zverev. The German has an Outright Index spread of 11-13, and faces another impossible task on Tuesday, with Spreadex offering a Federer/Zverev Match Supremacy spread of 16-19.

Chasing Federer with an Outright Index spread of 24-27, but a far weaker fixed odds price of 4/1, is his fellow countryman Stan Wawrinka. Despite a relatively easy path to the quarter-finals Wawrinka has had a few wobbles, most notably being pushed to 5 sets in his opening match. He takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who just knocked out Britain’s Daniel Evans and has an Outright Index spread of 16.5-19.5; the Swiss star just has the edge ahead of their meeting on Tuesday, at a Wawrinka/Tsonga Match Supremacy spread of 2.5-5.5.

Rounding out the final 8 are Rafael Nadal and Milos Raonic, who have comparable Outright Index spreads of 24.5-27.5 and 23-26 respectively but with vastly different fixed odds of 10/3 and 4/1, and David Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov, at 15.5-17.5 and 21.5-24.5.

Women's Singles
While note quite as shocking as the men’s draw, the women’s side of the competition has still seen the departure of more than half of the top 10 seeds, including world no. 1 Angelique Kerber, Agnieszka Radwanska, Simona Halep, Dominika Cibulkova, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Carla Suarez Navarro.



This does mean, of course, that Serena Williams is now the clear favourite to win the Aussie Open, with an Outright Index spread of 31-34 and fixed odds of 13/8. She’s set to face Britain’s Johanna Konta, who sits at 20-23 with fixed odds of 9/2. Australia seems to be where Konta shines most; last year she reached her first ever Grand Slam semi-final in at the Open in 2016, while this year she won the Sydney International earlier in January.

After Williams comes Karolina Pliskova, who will be aiming to build on her US Open final defeat last year by going one better in Oz. Pliskova has an Outright Index spread of 26.5-29.5 and faces Mirjana Lucic-Baroni on Wednesday, her Croatian opponent sitting at an Index spread of 11.5-13.5, the worst currently available.

As for Tuesday’s quarter-finals, Garbine Muguruza, who struggles with consistently from tournament to tournament, is at an Index spread of 26-29 ahead of her match against Coco Vandeweghe, the person who knocked out Kerber in straight sets. Despite that relative giant-killing the young Spaniard is the favourite, at a Muguruza/Vandeweghe Match Supremacy spread of 3.5-6.5.

Finally, in the closest of the quarter-finals Venus Williams takes on Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Both women sit at Outright Index spreads of 18-21, with an equal fixed odds price of 14/1. It’s so difficult to call, in fact, that Spreadex are offering a choice Williams/Pavlyuchenkova Match Supremacy spread of -1.5-1.5.