Sports Spread Betting Blog – 23/10/15: Preview – Sunderland v Newcastle and Man United v Man City.

It’s derby day in the Premier League on Sunday with the Tyne-Wear derby at midday followed by the Manchester derby at 2.05pm, so which sets of fans will be looking for horses to punch by the afternoon?

As all north-east-based football fans will know, the Toon have not beaten Sunderland in more than five years and have lost the last five derbies in a row.

A run of results which makes horses shudder with fear in this particular part of the world after the infamous ‘horse punch’ incident in October 2013 following Newcastle’s 3-0 home defeat to their arch rivals.

And the bad news for the equine population of the north-east is that the Spreadex traders make Sunderland marginal favourites for this one, despite the Magpies smashing Norwich 6-2 last weekend and despite Big Sam enduring a losing start at West Brom in his first game in charge of the Black Cats.

Our Goal Supremacy price is Sunderland/Newcastle 0 – 0.2 so the only saviour for Geordie nags is that this more strongly suggests a share of the spoils rather than a home win.

Spreadex clients have not been piling in with any huge money either way so far indicating they perhaps think a draw could be the most likely result.

The poor form of both sides this season has led to a slightly lower than usual Total Goals and Total Goal Minutes Spread of 2.5 – 2.7 and 127 – 137 leading to some buyers taking on these prices while, interestingly, we’ve so far seen sellers of Corners at 11.

Bookings (spread based on 10 points per yellow and 25 per red with a maximum of 35 points per player) is always a popular market in these highly-charged matches and the Spreadex traders have this pitched at 64 – 68 meaning buyers would need at least seven yellow cards to be shown by referee Robert Madley to start making money.

Last season’s clashes between the sides saw seven bookings in Sunderland’s 1-0 home win and eight handed out in Newcastle’s 1-0 home defeat, however Madley has only shown seven yellow cards once in his seven Premier League matches so far this season. So make of that what you will.

If anything can be read into the spreads, they perhaps suggest a dirty, low-scoring draw, which if it was to be the case would not really help either of the sides in their bid to move away from the relegation zone.

Looking from the bottom of the table to the top of the league and at 2.05pm it’s the Manchester derby from Old Trafford.

Again, the Spreadex traders are struggling to split the sides here although spread betters have generally been getting with the Red Devils causing the Goal Supremacy to move slightly from “choice price” -0.1 – 0.1 to Man Utd/Man City 0 – 0.2.

Punters also sense goals and we’ve seen buyers which have pushed the Total Goals spread up to 2.7 – 2.9 from an original 2.65 – 2.85 price. When you consider that there have not been less than three goals in total in a Manchester derby at Old Trafford since May 2009, then you can see the mind-set of these bets.

As for who may get these goals, Kevin De Bruyne has been a popular pick among Spreadex clients perhaps based on the theory that the Belgian may be pushed up front in favour of Wilfried Bony in the continued absence of Sergio Aguero for City.

It was this tactical manoeuvre which helped the Citizens pick up a last-gasp win over Sevilla in the Champions League in midweek and we’ve seen clients snapping up the ex-Chelsea man’s Goal Minutes and Super Mega Goal Minutes at spreads of 11 – 14 and 14 – 18 respectively.

Another market interesting Spreadex clients is Headed Goal Minutes, and in particular United Headed Goal Minutes.

Louis van Gaal’s side have yet to record a header on target at home in the Premier League (Chris Smalling did head against the post in the 0-0 with Newcastle although that of course doesn’t count as on target).

However, in the past week United have found the net with headers thanks to Ander Herrera’s second in the 3-0 win at Everton last weekend and Anthony Martial’s equaliser in the 1-1 Champions League draw at CSKA in midweek.

Spread betters seem to think this run will continue this weekend and we’ve seen buyers of United Headed Goal Minutes on a spread of 12 – 14.