Sports Blog 24/02/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League Last 16, Tuesday 24th February 2015

With 3 former winners in the mix and one side that really should have a better record in Europe, the Champions League games tonight involve 4 (or more likely 3) sides who could go on to win the whole tournament.

We first turn to a rainy Manchester, where City host an in-form(ish) Barcelona at 7.45pm on ITV. The game is a replay of this point in last season’s competition, when Barca beat City 4-1 over the two legs. Despite sitting in 2nd in the Premier League, City are 5 points off the pace, and have had very mixed form of late. Things have turned around somewhat in their past 2 matches, and City managed to score a total of 9 goals in those fixtures, even if the opposition was Stoke and Newcastle. Worryingly for City however, especially given the power Barca have upfront, they have only kept one clean sheet in their past 11 games, and will be sorely missing the solidity Yaya Toure gives them in the centre of the park with the Ivory Coast man suspended.

Yet City shouldn’t be too downbeat; they have beaten the odds before, reaching the last 16 through Aguero’s 2 goals in the final 6 minutes against Bayern to squeak into second in their group. It will likely be up to Aguero again if City want to get a result, and on 22 goals this season he is 17/4 to score first. Tonight may also see a first start for winter signing Wilfred Bony, whose 9 goals this season for Swansea put him at 7/1, alongside David Silva and Frank Lampard both at 12/1.



There are some striking similarities between City and Barca this season. Both are second in their respective leagues, both with noticeable deficits between them and 1st place (Barca trail Real Madrid by 4 points), and both with a sense that they haven’t been at their best of late. However, whilst City have struggled to shake off this mixed form in 2015, after a defeat at the start of January to Real Sociedad, Barcelona went on an astonishing run that only ended last weekend against Malaga. In the 11 games between these two losses (in both of which Barca failed to score), the Catalonian side found the back of the net 42 times. Needless to say they were undefeated during this period, despite the rumours of discord that have dogged the club since the New Year.

Barca also managed to top their Champions League group, one that included both PSG and Ajax; Luis Enrique will be hoping to continue his team's path through the tournament, and will have a near full-strength squad to choose from with only Thomas Vermaelen missing. Obviously all eyes will be on Lionel Messi, who with 38 goals this season is at 3/1 to score first. Neymar, on an impressive 26 goals, is at 9/2, whilst Luis Suarez, playing in England for his first time since leaving Liverpool in the summer, is at 11/2 on 7 goals. With this formidable strike force, and fantastic form that should see the defeat to Malaga as a mere blip, Barca are narrow favourites at a Barcelona/Manchester City (h) Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.4-0.6, even if our clients appear to be fancying the Manchester side.

Tuesday’s other game just a season ago would have been a much tougher match to call; however, a change in fortunes for Borussia Dortmund means they visit Juventus with a shaky platform to jump from. Despite winning their last three games in a row, this has only meant that Dortmund have dragged themselves to 12th after prolonged periods of languishing in the Bundesliga’s relegation zone. Even with these wins Dortmund have managed to concede 4 goals in their last two games; they are a far cry from the perpetually top 2 side that was a Champions League runner up only 2 years ago.

However, in Europe it has been a different story for Dortmund, as they topped their group by beating Arsenal’s goal difference. They also had a sign of faith over the January transfer window, when Marco Reus fended off bids from Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United to sign a new 4 and a half year contract with the German side. If Dortmund are to get what one suspects will be a much needed away goal, then Gabon captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, on 14 goals at 8/1 to score first, will need to perform, as well as the aforementioned Reus, 9 goals at 13/2, and Ilkay Gundogan, at 16/1 on a pitiful 2 goals this season.



Juventus couldn’t be more different from Dortmund at the moment. They are atop of Serie A with a 9 point lead, and on track for fourth league title in a row. They are even undefeated in 2015. In fact, beyond their penalty defeat to Napoli in the Italian Super Cup in December, you have to go all the way back to the end of October to find a full-blown, caveat-free defeat.

However, their situation in Europe is mixed. Whilst they have only lost 1 in their last 15 home games in Europe, Juventus haven’t reached the quarter finals of the Champions League since 2006. On top of this is the fact that Juve didn’t actually manage to top their group, coming second to Atletico Madrid after losses to the Spanish team alongside a surprise defeat at Olympiacos. Yet with Arturo Vidal likely to return, and Carlos Tevez on 19 goals (and at 17/4 to score first), with Alvaro Morata (8 goals, 13/2), Paul Pogba (8 goals, 12/1) and Fernando Llorente (6 goals, 13/2) all in form, the Italian side will be feeling confident. Our Spreadex traders agree, offering a Juventus/Borussia Dortmund Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.35-0.55, with a Total Goals spread of 2.35-2.55.