Sports Blog 25/02/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League Last 16, Wednesday 25th February 2015

Last night’s all-star games proceeded much as expected, with narrow wins for Barcelona and Juventus. Whilst none of tonight’s games contain a former winner, there are plenty for former runners up eager to go one step further.

First up sees Arsenal host AS Monaco at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 5. There was a sigh of relief when Arsenal got Wenger’s former club; considering the Gunners finished second in their group, the draw could have been a lot, lot worse. Wenger’s side has failed to get past the last 16 for the last four years, and his failure to win Europe’s premier piece of silverware is a noticeable blight on the French man’s CV. Yet if Arsenal are going to push for the title, then they might just stand their best change in years with this current squad.

Whilst Ramsey, Arteta, Diaby and Debuchy are all absent, this still leaves Arsenal with their formidable front line. Alexis Sanchez has been a revelation for Arsenal this season, and if anyone is going to break down Monaco’s walls it is the Chilean. On 18 goals this season he is at 9/2 to score first, as is Olivier Giroud, whose re-found form sees him with 11 goals; joining the front two are Santi Cazorla, on 8 goals at 8/1, and Danny Welbeck, on 7 goals at 5/1. Arsenal’s away victory at Crystal Palace at the weekend saw them shoot up to 3rd; more importantly, it showed signs of the resilience and scrappy ability to get a win on a bad day that the Gunners have sorely lacked in recent years.



It is likely that this new-found resilience is going to be thoroughly tested against Monaco. Whilst they are sitting in 4th in Ligue 1, and 11 points off of 1st place Lyon, this doesn’t tell the whole story. Monaco have only lost once in their last 17 games, with staggeringly only 3 goals conceded during that period. However, things have been just as tight up front as they have been at the back. Since Falcao and James Rodriguez left for greener pastures Monaco have only scored 26 goals in 25 games, and are lacking a player like Sanchez that can win games on his own.

In Europe Monaco only conceded 1 goal in the entire group stage; yet once again, they only managed to score 4. This still led them to top their group, with the caveat that it was a group of what could safely be called the Champions League B-team: Bayer Leverkusen, Zenit Saint Petersburg and Benfica. The French side have a fairly long list of injuries, with Toulalan, Bakayoko, Carvalho and Raggi all missing, whilst Kurzawa and Ferreira-Carrasco are doubtful. This leaves Dimitri Berbatov on 6 goals at 8/1 to score first, alongside Anthony Martial (4 goals, 11/1) and Valere Germain (3 goals, 14/1) to make the difference. Yet our traders and clients alike can’t see beyond the Gunners’ current strength at an Arsenal/Monaco Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 1-1.2, with a narrow Total Goals spread of 2.3-2.5.

Tonight’s other game sees last year’s beaten finalists Atletico Madrid travel to the BayArena to play Bayer Leverkusen at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1. After a decent start to the season, Bayer have faded of late, and despite sitting in 6th in the Bundesliga are a massive 22 points away from 1st place Bayern Munich. Their recent form has been dominated by limp draws and losses; in fact, the German side have only won 2 out of their last 10 games.

In Europe Leverkusen came second in the aforementioned B-team group to Monaco, and their appearances in the tournament in the past decade have been a far cry from the side that reached the Champions League final in 2001-02. Since the inception of a last 16 instead of a second group stage they have never managed to progress past this point, and will be looking to overturn this run against the Spanish side. Bayer have a solid, if unspectacular, strike force, which sees Stefan Kiessling on 10 goals at 6/1 to score first, with Karim Bellarabi on 9 goals at 9/1 and Son Heung-Min on 3 goals at 7/1.



It is a different story for Atletico Madrid. The current champions of La Liga pushed Real Madrid to extra time in last season’s final, and will be looking to at least match that run this year. They are sitting in third in Spain, 3 points behind Barca and 7 behind leaders Real Madrid; despite this deficit, the most recent Madrid derby saw Atletico spank Ronaldo and co. 4-0 in an impressive attacking display. Yet they are capable of a slip up, losing 2-0 to Celta Vigo 2 weeks ago, as well as crashing out of the Copa Del Rey following two defeats at the hands of Barcelona.

In Europe Atletico have been strong, coming out top of a group that included Juventus and scoring 14 goals in the process. Atletico have continued their trend of finding excellent strikers to replace their departing superstars, with their summer acquisition Mario Mandzukic scoring 20 goals this season, seeing him at 5/1 to score first. Their other big summer signing, Antone Griezmann, has done just has well, at 11/2 after scoring 17 goals so far. These are joined by Raul Garcia on 9 goals, and Fernando Torres on 3, both at 13/2 to score first. Even though Atletico are in the better form, Bayer’s home advantage means the spread is only just in the Spanish side’s favour, at an Atletico Madrid/Bayer Leverkusen (h) Goal Supremacy quote of 0.1-0.3 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.2-2.4.