Sports Blog 25/03/2015: Tournament Preview – Cricket World Cup Semi-Final, Australia vs India, 26th March 2015

After New Zealand got through to their first final in nail-biting fashion, with only one ball to spare, it remains to be seen whether Australia can join their co-hosts on Sunday.

Going into Thursday’s semi-final against India, the latter’s fans are expected to fill 70% of the Sydney Cricket Ground, in another sign that World Cup fever has failed to ignite Sydney in the same way as it has in Auckland.

However this won’t bother the Aussies, who are chasing their 5th World Cup title, continuing their position as the most successful nation in the Cup’s history; they currently sit at an Outright Index spread of 41-44, and are at fixed odds of 11/10 to win the tournament. Yet Australia’s path to this semi-final hasn’t been as hiccup-free as they would have hoped, nor as their pre-Cup form would have suggested. They came second to New Zealand in Pool A after losing to their co-hosts and ‘drawing’ against Bangladesh in a match that was abandoned before a ball could be bowled, leading to one of the easier draws in the quarter-finals against Pakistan. Despite an overall convincing victory, winning by 6 wickets, there were times when the Aussies looked shaken by Wahab Riaz’s aggressive bowling, something that may give hope to India.



David Warner, a power force for the Aussies, is at a Player Performance spread of 48-53, where a player receives 1 point per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket and 25 per stumping. Warner is also on a Tournament Runs spread of 409-416 with 337 already; interestingly, however, Warner could end up missing the final even if Australia get through if he is sanctioned one more time during the semi-final. And after a stellar first game against England, Aaron Finch’s form has trailed off somewhat as the tournament has continued, with many questioning his place in the team; Finch remains at a Player Performance spread of 42-47 and a Tournament Runs spread of 306-313 with 244 runs already. Elsewhere, Glenn Maxwell is on a PP spread of 47-52, with Shane Watson on 45-50 and Steve Smith on 43-48 and a Tournament Runs spread of 351-358 with 281 already.

If the odds currently favour Australia, with India at an Outright Index spread of 28-31 and 9/2 to win the tournament, the Men in Blue will be quietly confident they can get the job done. India are currently on 11 successive World Cup victories that stretch back to their victorious 2011 tournament, and like finalists New Zealand were unbeaten in their Pool, including a dominant 130 run win over thwarted semi-finalists South Africa. The Men in Blue the comfortably beat Bangladesh, who took the knockout spot many thought England were set to achieve, by 109 runs in the quarter-final. In fact, India have taken all 10 wickets in all of their 7 World Cup games this tournament leaving them with some formidable form heading into Thursday.



India’s star man Virat Kohli is at a Player Performance spread of 45-50, and a Tournament Runs spread of 361-368 with 304 already. Kohli has been effusive in his praise of India’s bowlers ahead of the semi-final, and given the trouble Pakistan’s Riaz caused the Aussies, Kohli might be right to play up this part of their game before Thursday. Rohit Sharma, who ran 137 in the quarter-final, is at a PP spread of 41-46 and a Tournament Runs spread of 349-368 with 296 already. Ajinkya Rahane, who Michael Vaughan claimed is India’s ‘most technically correct batsman’ is at a Player Performance spread of 38-43 and has ran 164 already, leaving him on a Tournament Runs spread of 207-214. Elsewhere, Suresh Raina is on a PP spread of 41-56, alongside Ravindra Jadeja at 39-44.

Yet for all this Indian confidence, India have only beaten Australia once in 35 years at the Sydney Cricket Ground, leaving the Men in Blue at 2/1 odds to win the match compared to the Aussies’ 2/5. Our Spreadex traders also fancy the Kangaroos with a Australia/India Cricket Supremacy spread betting quote of 20-30; however, the feelings of our clients have been mixed, with a near even split on bets for either side to win.