Sports Blog 26/11/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Europa League, Thursday 26th November 2015

With a mixed bag from England’s Champions League teams it’s the turn of Tottenham and Liverpool to try and secure a place in the Europa League’s last 32.

First up is a trip to Azerbaijan for Tottenham, who face FK Qarabag at 6pm on BT Sport Europe. Spurs are on a fantastic league run at the moment; in their last 4 games they have scored 13 goals, 7 of have which coming from an in form Harry Kane (at 4/1 favourite to score first with a Super Mega PGM of 29-35) who has finally recovered from his flaccid start to the season. That leaves Spurs unbeaten in 12 league games and knocking on the door of the top 4, Kane’s recovery helping the London side gain some of the bite that was sorely lacking in the first month and a half of 2015/16.

Their record in Europe is slightly more mixed, though it must be said that Spurs have by and large avoided the post-Europa League curse (well, they have drawn 2 out of their 4 games on the weekend after a Thursday match, but one of those was admittedly against Arsenal). Beating Qarabag 3-1 in London back in September, Tottenham following up that win with a 1-1 draw in Monaco and a 2-1 loss to Anderlecht. However, a 2-1 victory against the Belgian side at White Hart Lane got their European season back on track, and a win in Azerbaijan would put them into the knockouts. Yet a visit from Chelsea on Sunday complicates matters, and leaves Mauricio Pochettino with an unenviable selection decision to ponder.



Though the temptation is there to field a weaker side, Pochettino would be a fool to underestimate his opponents, especially at home. Whilst no-one is claiming the Azerbaijan Premier League is particularly tough, 10 wins in 13 games is a decent return for Qarabag, and leaves them in 1st place with 9 points to spare. And despite being easily the smallest side in Group J they still sit in 3rd, equal on 4 points with Anderlecht (who they beat in Azerbaijan), 2 behind 2nd place Monaco (who Qarabag held to a draw in Baku) and only 3 behind Spurs. This leaves them with a chance, however slim, of reaching the next round, something that may well be dependent on the form of Richard Almeida who, at a Super Mega PGM of 8-11, is not only the side’s top scorer with 10 goals but is the man responsible for 2 of Qarabag’s 3 Europa League goals.

Though Qarabag have shown a certain kind of toughness in their last 3 Europa League games (conceding only 2 goals), the Spurs that beat them 3-1 back in September have only grown in stature since then, leaving our Spreadex traders to offer a Tottenham/Qarabag (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.35-0.55 with a Total Goals spread of 2.2-2.4.

Whilst Spurs jump on a plan eastwards, Liverpool host Bordeaux at 8.05pm on BT Sport Europe. Whilst they still might not have quite reached the level of consistency Jurgen Klopp would like, the Reds have nevertheless shown flashes of brilliance under the charismatic German, the most recent being a 4-1 thrashing of Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium. It means in their last 3 league games Liverpool have beaten Chelsea and City on the road, but with a home defeat to Crystal Palace sandwiched in between. 

Klopp will be hoping the freely-scoring champion-beaters turn up on Thursday night and not the side that were sloppy against Palace and drew their first 3 games in the Europa League (including their opener in Bordeaux). A recent win against Rubin Kazan, however, does leave Liverpool in a marginally less precarious position, only 2 points behind Group B leaders Sion and 3 ahead of their French opponents. Frustratingly the Reds will be missing top scorer Philip Coutinho, though that will be made up for if Daniel Sturridge (at a Super Mega PGM spread of 42-49) makes his mark on what is likely to be his first appearance under his new gaffer. 



Bordeaux haven’t been at their best this season. They are languishing in 14th place in Ligue 1, managing a mere 4 wins in 14 games; and their Europa League form hasn’t been much better. Draws against Liverpool, Rubin Kazan and Sion (who beat Bordeaux in France) leaves them on 3 points something that does, admittedly, mean they have a chance of making the final 32 if they nab a win at Anfield on Thursday evening. Whilst defensive errors have been their main issue domestically, in Europe Bordeaux’s inability to score (a measly 2 goals in 4 games) has been their downfall, with last season’s top scorer Diego Rolan (who sits at a Super Mega PGM of 9-13) managing a solitary goal so far in 2015/16.

If Liverpool can replicate the kind of performances they put in against Chelsea and Man City on Thursday evening then they shouldn’t have any issues with the sub-par French side. Our Spreadex traders think so at least, offering a Liverpool/Bordeaux Goal Supremacy spread of 1.25-1.45 with a Total Goals spread of 2.5-2.7.