Sports Blog 27/02/2015: Match Preview – Premier League/League Cup Final, Saturday 28th February to Sunday 1st March 2015

It’s a very busy weekend for English football, with tired legs trying to recover from mid-week European matches, and the League Cup final on Sunday afternoon.

There is only one televised game on Saturday, with a (lesser) London derby between West Ham and Crystal Palace at 12.45pm on Sky Sports 1. The Hammers were very unlucky not to get the win against Tottenham last weekend, with only a last minute goal from Harry Kane saving Spurs from defeat. Frustratingly for Big Sam, Carlton Cole has joined Andy Carroll on the injury list, meaning Nene, West Ham’s Brazilian January singing, is set to make his debut. The former Ligue 1 top scorer may be getting slightly long in the tooth, but he could bring an extra bit of class to West Ham, who are currently sitting in 8th in the league.



Former West Ham manager Alan Pardew has been working some (small-scale) magic since taking over Crystal Palace in January. In the 9 games of his tenure, Palace won 5, lost 3 and drew one. That is more wins in 9 games than Neil Warnock managed in the entire first half of the season. On top of this they have also scored in all but one of their games under Pardew; however, with Campbell, Chamakh and Sanogo all out of Saturday’s game through injury Palace may see a rare struggle on this front. Despite Palace’s relatively impressive run, it doesn’t match the strength of West Ham, whose form sheet is unreflective of their recent performances, leading to a West Ham/Crystal Palace Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.3-0.5 and a Total Goals spread of 2.35-2.55.

We then turn to Sunday, where Liverpool host Manchester City at 12pm on Sky Sports 1. Liverpool just had their unbeaten run ended as they crashed out of the Europa League following a penalties defeat against Besiktas. However, all the talk of Liverpool’s recent run of form can be slightly misleading; the Reds have only actually won 6 of their 13 league home games. This is not the kind of stat Liverpool will want to hear ahead of Sunday’s fixture against second place City, especially with the tired bodies of a Thursday tie in Europe.



What may save Liverpool is the fact that Manchester City haven’t exactly been setting the footballing world alight of late. Whilst their 2 most recent wins have been emphatic, 4-1 against Stoke and 5-0 against Newcastle, they also suffered frustrating draws against Chelsea and Hull as well as defeats to Middlesbrough, and most recently, Barcelona. Ironically, it was former Liverpool star Suarez that sunk City in Europe, leaving the Manchester side with the daunting task of getting a result at the Nou Camp to progress. In what is sure to be a tight game our Spreadex traders have sided with City, at a narrow Manchester City/Liverpool (h) Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.15-0.35 with our clients disagreeing, placing a flurry of bets favouring Liverpool.

The other Merseyside team then travel to North London, as Arsenal face Everton at 2.05pm on BT Sport 1. Both teams had mid-week battles in Europe, but things went very differently for either side. Arsenal slumped to an embarrassing 3-1 defeat at home to Monaco, a team that barely managed to score a goal a game this season. The Gunners will need to put this loss behind them if they want to maintain 3rd place; luckily for Arsenal in their last 13 games they have had 10 wins and 3 losses. What is frustrating is that whenever the Gunners seem to be building up a head of steam they slip back into the classic Arsenal mistakes that have plagued them for the past few seasons. The performances of Alexis Sanchez (10/3 to score first), Olivier Giroud (15/4), Theo Walcott and Danny Welbeck (both 5/1) will be vital if Arsenal want to get back on track this weekend.



However they are coming up against an Everton side that will be in a jubilant mood after their win in Europe. The 3-1 victory over Young Boys meant a 7-2 win over two legs as Everton became the only British team to progress in the Europa League. Yet things are very different domestically, with the Toffess only winning 3 of their last 15 league games. Their chances on Saturday will likely be down to the performance of Lukaku; the Belgian got another 2 goals on Thursday to make it 5 in the past 2 European fixtures, leaving him at 17/2 to score first. For all their continental form, there still appears to be a big gulf between the two sides, with our traders fancying the Gunners at an Arsenal/Everton Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 1-1.2 with a Total Goals spread of 2.8-3.

Finally, the big game of the weekend sees another London derby, with Chelsea facing Tottenham in the League Cup final at 4pm on Sky Sports 1. Chelsea will be more rested than their opponents, with no mid-week game in Europe to distract from preparation for the final. However, there are signs of weakness in the Blues’ camp. Matic will be absent through suspension, and a 1-1 draw at home against Burnley isn’t an excellent precursor to what is sure to be a tough game. Yet the fact remains that Chelsea have only lost 3 times in all competitions this season, even if one of those defeats was at White Hart Lane, and with fresher legs the Blues will fancy their chances at Wembley.



Whilst that 5-3 win earlier in the season means Tottenham will go into Sunday knowing they can do the job against Mourinho’s men, Spurs’ run into the final hasn’t been spotless. Last weekend Tottenham managed to scrabble to a draw after looking weak against West Ham, and the weekend before that saw a 3-2 defeat to Liverpool. Thursday then saw them leave the Europa League after Fiorentina neatly dispatched of the North London side 2-0.

The difference on Sunday could be dependent on the performances of each sides’ top striker: Diego Costa has been a powerful presence for Chelsea and with 17 goals this season is favourite to score first at 15/4; for Spurs’ the undoubted star has been Harry Kane, with the youngster saving Tottenham’s skin more than a few times this season, and with 22 goals is at 6/1. Given their rest, form and general squad strength, Chelsea are both favourites to win the cup, at a Chelsea/Tottenham Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.85-1.05, and to edge the tie if it goes to Extra Time, at a Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.15.