After an unconvincing group stage can England reach the Euro 2016 quarter-finals with an emphatic win over Iceland?

It’s safe to say that coming 2nd in Group B wasn’t the result that everyone hoped for from this youthful England side. With Wales doing what England couldn’t and beating Russia, Hodgson’s much criticised decision to introduce wide-sweeping changes to a side that had just begun to gain momentum looked even more foolish. Instead of proving the depth of the squad, and the potency of its attack, England squandered their dominance, slumping to a goalless draw against Slovakia (who were just humiliated in their last 16 tie against Germany on Sunday). It’s the kind of form that has seen England’s Outright Index spread relatively unchanged since the competition began, with the 34-37 on offer suggesting an exit in the quarter-finals.



In contrast to England’s chopping and changing Iceland are a veritable pillar of stability. The team’s joint managers Lars Lagerback and Heimer Hallgimsson have used the same pool of 16 players throughout the last 2 years, lending the side a sense of brotherly understanding that the new faces in the England squad perhaps lack. It is this understanding that helped Iceland escape Group F undefeated; a momentous draw against Portugal was followed by an unlucky 1-1 finish against Hungary, with a late own goal cancelling out Gylfi Sigurdsson’s 1st half penalty. Yet their greatest moment came against Austria; with the game at 1-1, and Iceland heading for a 3rd place finish, Arnor Ingvi Traustason found the back of the net in the 94th minute, placing the country above Portugal and (somewhat to England’s relief) setting up Monday’s match in Nice.

Although he was attacked for making 6 changes to the side that beat Wales, one imagines less hostility will greet Hodgson’s line-up this Monday. Harry Kane and Wayne Rooney (at Super Mega PGMs of 30-36 and 18-22 respectively) return up top, with Kane’s Tottenham teammates Dele Alli (at 13-17), Kyle Walker and Danny Rose also set to reclaim their starting places. Yet there is one player whose return might cause a bit of consternation among fans: Raheem Sterling. The most-criticised player of England’s tournament so far, Sterling’s morale was reportedly so damaged that his soon-to-be Man City manager Pep Guardiola had to ring up and give him, well, a pep talk. It’s a risk to put him back in the side, but one that may pay dividends down the road if he can re-find his form against Iceland.



Iceland were the only side, bar Spain, to play the same starting 11 in all 3 group games. There is little reason to believe that will change on Monday, meaning much of Iceland’s chances will be centred around Swansea’s Gylfi Sigurdsson. With 1 penalty to his name Sigurdsson, Iceland’s top scorer in qualifying, has been instrumental for his country, and will be looking to increase his tournament tally against England, heading into the last 16 tie at a Super Mega PGM of 7-10.

It would be a dream for major tournament debutantes Iceland to reach the quarter-finals; it would be a nightmare for England (and, more specifically, Hodgson) to be dumped out by the competition’s remaining minnow. Luckily for the latter, and sadly for the former, our Spreadex traders think the result is fairly clear cut, offering an England/Iceland Goal Supremacy spread of 1.1-1.3 alongside a Total Goal spread of 2.35-2.55.

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