Sports Blog 27/03/2015: Cricket World Cup Final Preview – Australia vs New Zealand, Sunday 29th March 2015

It has been a long and winding road, but Sunday finally sees the apex of the Cricket World Cup 2015 as the two hosts square up to try and take the title.

The narrative couldn't be sweeter. The two best sides of the tournament, co-hosts at that, who have a long and storied trans-Tasman rivalry and have already played in the Pool stages, producing one of the best matches of the entire Cup. There is then the fact that it is the experienced Aussies, chasing their 5th title in their 7th final, against the final-debutantes, with the Kiwis desperate to lift the trophy for the first time.

When the two teams meet on Sunday it will be in the Melbourne Cricket Ground, an intimidating proposition for a Kiwi side that has benefited so much from an Auckland home advantage. Whilst New Zealand beat the Aussies in their last visit to the ground, way back in 2009, Australia haven’t been beaten in an ODI at the MCG since March 2012.



With that impressive home run in mind, Australia are favourites for the title at an Outright Index spread of 53-54.5 alongside fixed odds of 4/9. They won their semi-final in convincing fashion against India, with their 328-7 victory being the highest scoring win of the tournament. And despite that Pool round loss to the Kiwis, Captain Michael Clarke has said that early defeat to the New Zealand it what spurred on his team to the impressive performances seen between then and now.

In that semi-final, Steve Smith once again proved himself indispensable to this Australian side, cruising to 104 runs in 93 balls to help secure the Aussies’ record-breaking progress to the 2015 final. This leaves Smith on a Player Performance spread (with 1 point per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket and 25 per stumping) of 48-53, alongside a tournament runs spread of 430-435 on 386 runs already. Aaron Finch, scoring 81 runs in the semi-final after recovering from a mid-tournament slump, has a Player Performance spread of 43-48 and a runs spread of 395-400 with Finch already totalling 349. Elsewhere, David Warner is on a Player Performance spread of 49-54 (and a tournament runs spread of 395-400 with 349 already) whilst Glenn Maxwell is at 50-55.

Whilst the odds are pointing in Australia’s favour, New Zealand won’t be overawed by the occasion, and sit at an Outright Index spread of 46-47.5 and fixed odds of 7/4 to win the match. Unlike the Aussies, New Zealand are unbeaten in the tournament; in fact, this run now stretches to 10 ODI victories in a row. That triumph over Australia in Pool A will give the Kiwis confidence they can do it again, even if it was a tight one wicket win. Their semi-final against South Africa was a similarly tense affair, with New Zealand leaving it until the penultimate ball to secure their place in the final. This risky behaviour may mean the Kiwis lack the strength to beat an Aussie side firing on all cylinders; however, New Zealand have the leading wicket taker of the competition to bolster their ranks, with Trent Boult on 21 (and a PP spread of 37-42) just ahead of Australia’s Mitchell Starc on 20 (and a PP of 40-45).



They also have Martin Guptill who, currently on 532, has the highest total runs of any player left in the competition, only behind India’s Kumar Sangakkara, who left on 541. Guptill could easily become the top run scorer of the tournament on Sunday, and is at a Player Performance spread of 42-47. Brendon McCullum is at a Player Performance spread of 45-50 after looking formidable against South Africa, and on 222 runs has a tournament runs spread of 264-269. New Zealand then have Kane Williamson, at a PP of 45-50 with his 349 runs leaving him at a tournament runs spread of 395-400, whilst Corey Anderson goes into the final with a Player Performance spread of 47-52.

Despite New Zealand’s spirited performances so far and the fact that they are on such an impressive unbeaten run, our Spreadex traders cannot see past the ascending Aussies, at an Australia/New Zealand Cricket Supremacy spread betting quote of 20-30. Yet the surge of support the Kiwis have received, and the fact that they are ravenous for a title, means it would be dangerous to count out New Zealand, a sentiment our clients have echoed with their betting.