An under-press Louis van Gaal will have another ostensibly easy obstacle to trip over this Friday, when Manchester United travel to Derby in the 4th round of the FA Cup.

United’s most recent defeat, a 1-0 loss to Southampton at Old Trafford last weekend, almost saw a big change at the Manchester club. Van Gaal offered to resign after the defeat, only to be convinced to stay by executive vice-chairman Edward Woodward. It’s an odd situation, and one that won’t inspire confidence in those United fans that have already turned on the Dutchman (and there are plenty of them if the boos on Saturday are anything to go by).

Now, Manchester United aren’t exactly in Chelsea-territory; they are, after all, still in 5th place. Plus, that loss to the Saints was their first defeat in 4 games. However, on 37 points they are 5 away from 4th place Tottenham, 7 away from Arsenal and Man City, and a whopping 10 away from league leaders Leicester. In contrast, West Ham are breathing hard down United’s neck, sitting one point behind them in 6th. It’s not the kind of title-pushing run fans were expecting from this season, and, considering they are out of both the League Cup and Champions League, there is extra pressure on their FA Cup run. To make matters worse United hardly convinced in the 3rd round, only progressing thanks to a 93rd minute penalty against Sheffield United.



Derby find themselves in a similar situation. Sitting in 5th in the Championship, the Rams are 7 points behind league leaders Hull, and are arguably lucky not to be further away from the peak. A stuttering start to the season was soon overcome, and between mid-September and Boxing Day Derby only lost one Championship game. However, since then Derby have been derailed. Their final game of 2015 saw them throw away an early lead against Leeds, eventually drawing 2-2; things got worse in the New Year, with a draw against Reading joined by losses against Middlesbrough, Birmingham and, on Monday, Burnley.

That 4 game run has seen the Rams concede 10 goals whilst only scoring 2, with January signing Nick Blackman (so successful for Reading in the first half of the season) failing to make much of an impact. Of course United are in the midst of their own goal-scoring problems; in the league they have scored a paltry 28 goals, the same amount as 19th place Sunderland and 9 away from Arsenal, the lowest scoring side of the 4 teams above the Manchester club.

The Rams’ abject form since the turn of the New Year gives even a faltering United a relatively easy path to the FA Cup 5th round. However, their struggles in front of goal mean they only have a relatively slender (given the size of each club) advantage, at a Manchester United/Derby (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.35-0.55 alongside a low Total Goals spread of 2.3-2.5.

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