Sports Blog 29/01/2016: Match Preview – FA Cup 4th Round, Saturday 30th to Sunday 31st January 2016

With no real surprises in the 3rd round, can any of the minnows left in the FA Cup produce the kind of scalpings the competition is known for this weekend?

There is a (very slim) chance of a scalp in Saturday’s first game, as Tottenham travel to Colchester at 12.45pm on BT Sport 2. Winless in League One since the 20th October, bottom of the table AND with an astonishingly bad 65 goals conceded in 28 games, the U’s run in the FA Cup has been brief salvo for relegation-weary Colchester fans. 6-2 and 3-2 wins over Wealdstone and Altrincham in the 1st and 2nd rounds respectively were par for the course; a 2-1 victory over Charlton in the 3rd round, however, was arguably Colchester’s result of the season (even if you take into account how bad the Addicks have been this season themselves).



Yet the task facing the U’s this weekend is in a different league. Quite literally. Sitting in 4th in the Premier League, and with only 1 loss since mid-December, Spurs were pushed to a replay by Leicester after their initial 2-2 draw (the North London side saved by an 89th minute penalty from Harry Kane). Interestingly, between that first attempt and the rerun at the King Power Stadium Tottenham actually lost at home to the Foxes (the aforementioned solitary defeat), before winning 2-0 in the cup. Now Pochettino faces a tough choice; does he play the likes of Kane and Dele Alli (at Super Mega PGMs of 69-79 and 26-31 respectively) or does he rest them for the league. Either way our traders don’t foresee much trouble for Spurs’, offering a Tottenham/Colchester (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 1.4-1.6 alongside a Total Goals spread of 3.2-3.4.

Saturday afternoon’s fixture is far harder to call, when Liverpool host West Ham at 5.30pm on BT Sport 2. Liverpool have shown a consistent ability to disappoint in 2016, especially in the league; losing their first match of the year (to West Ham, incidentally), the Reds only just managed their first victory last weekend, that nail-biting 5-4 win over Norwich (with a draw against Arsenal and a loss to Man United sandwiched in-between). They were even pushed to a replay against Exeter in the FA Cup, finally winning 3-0 in the replay. Jurgen Klopp will be hoping, however, that the Reds’ penalty win over Stoke mid-week (after actually losing the 2nd leg 1-0) in the League Cup will see spirits high going into the week’s second cup tie.



West Ham, on the other hand, have managed to climb back to 6th, one place (and 2 points) above Liverpool and only 1 point away from Manchester United. And whilst they may be winless in their past 2 games, one of those matches was a hard-fought 2-2 draw against Manchester City (less noble was their 2-1 defeat to Newcastle). Their 3rd round match in the FA Cup was also far less dramatic than Liverpool’s, the Hammers beating Wolves 1-0 thanks to a late strike from Nikica Jelavic (who heads into the weekend at a Super mega PGM spread of 19-23). Yet the Reds’ mid-week (if scrappy) victory gives them the edge, with Spreadex offering a Liverpool/West Ham Goal Supremacy spread of 0.3-0.6 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.5-2.7.

Turning to Sunday and there is the chance for a few major giant-killings. First up sees an insipid Everton travel to Carlisle United at 1.30pm on BT Sport 2. Despite the wealth of talent in their squad, including the rampant Romelu Lukaku (who, with 19 goals this season, has as Super Mega PGM of 70-82), the Toffees find themselves stuck in 12th place in the Premier League, with their 2-0 FA Cup victory over Dagenham & Redbridge their solitary win in 2016. Even more heartbreakingly their hopes of a Merseyside derby in the League Cup final were dashed mid-week as they gave up their 2-1 1st leg advantage with a 3-1 defeat to Man City at the Etihad.



Not that they should have too much to worry about with their 4th round fixture. Carlisle United are pootling about the in the middle of League Two, their middling form leaving them in 11th (though, admittedly, only 3 points away from 7th place Accrington Stanley). In the Cup they have been solid, though they haven’t exactly faced much competition; a 2-0 1st round win over Plymouth Argyle was followed by a 5-0 victory over Welling United in the 2nd. Their 3rd round tie against Yeovil Town then ended 2-2, with the Cumbrians winning the replay on penalties. In other words, it’s the Toffees’ to lose, with Spreadex offering a Everton/Carlisle (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 1.2-1.4 alongside a Total Goals spread of 3.1-3.3.

Finally, and potentially the biggest upset of the weekend, Sunday afternoon sees MK Dons take on Chelsea at 4pm on BBC One. One of the best moments of last season (at least, for non-Blues fans) was Chelsea crashing out at the hands of Bradford at this exact point in the competition. And with the Hiddink-led side still languishing in 13th place there is every chance of a similar situation this year. However, Chelsea are unbeaten in 8 games (with 4 draws and 4 wins, most recently against Arsenal), and there has been a marked improvement since Jose Mourinho departed. Sunday’s game will also be a chance for Diego Costa (at a Super Mega PGM of 50-58) to continue to build on its recent form, the Spaniard managing 6 goals in Chelsea’s last 7 games.



In contrast MK Dons have struggled since they made the jump to the Championship; with only 7 wins in 26 league games they find themselves stuck in 20th place, only 2 points above the relegation zone. They were also pushed to a replay in the FA Cup 3rd round; drawing 2-2 at Northampton Town’s Sixfields Stadium, the Dons eventually won 3-0 at home. Last weekend’s loss to the woeful Bolton Wanderers likely won’t have helped the side’s confidence ahead of their FA Cup tie, and our Spreadex traders are expecting an easy win for the Blues, offering a Chelsea/MK Dons (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 1.5-1.7 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.7-2.9.

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