Can Lewis Hamilton finally overtake Sebastian Vettel with a win at the Italian Grand Prix this weekend?

Unlike last season, where Hamilton and eventual champion Nico Rosberg took multi-race spells atop the podium, no driver has won back-to-back Grand Prix in 2017. That could all change on Sunday, however, as Hamilton looks to close the 7 point gap that separates him and his Ferrari foe Vettel.



The Brit has been pretty inconsistent this year. While he has won 5 races – more than any other driver – he has failed to make the podium in 5 of the other 7 Grand Prix. To compare, in 2016 Hamilton only missed out on the podium in 4 races total. It also explains why he still trails Vettel – the German has finished in 1st 4 times and been runner-up 5 times, only missing out on a top 3 placement in 3 races.

Still, it was Hamilton who triumphed in Belgian last weekend, and he is expected to repeat that feat at Monza, at a Race Index spread of 58-62 to Vettel’s 48-52. The Brit is even odds on favourite at 8/13, with the German trailing behind at 3/1. Both men have impressive histories at the course, however. In the last 6 seasons Hamilton has won 3 times and Vettel twice, the only other Italian Stallion being the now-retired Rosberg in 2016.

If the Mercedes maestro is to win his 4th title – and he is currently favourite at a Drivers Season Index spread of 49-52 to Vettel’s 45-48 – then he can’t really afford many more non-podium finishes. And given that most pundits expect Vettel to romp to victory in Singapore in a couple of weeks, Hamilton needs to seize his opportunity to at the very least draw level on points (if he comes in 1st and Vettel 2nd) in Monza.

As for the Constructors’ Championship, things are much less tight. Valtteri Bottas has had a far better season than Kimi Raikkonen – the former has won 2 Grand Prix, the only other driver alongside Daniel Ricciardo to break up the Hamilton/Vettel duopoly – leaving Mercedes 44 points ahead of Ferrari. That translates into a Constructors’ Championship Index spread of 46-49 to 32-35, with fixed odds of 1/14 and 7/1 for Mercedes and Ferrari respectively.