Sports Blog 30/06/2016: UEFA Euro 2016 Quarter-Final Preview – Poland vs Portugal, Thursday 30th June 2016

It’s the first of the Euro 2016 quarter-finals, with Poland and Portugal, 2 of the tournament’s most disappointing teams, facing off at 8pm on ITV.

Despite containing 2 of the world’s most prolific forwards in Robert Lewandowski and Cristiano Ronaldo both Poland and Portugal have lumbered their way through the competition in rather unconvincing fashion. Lewandowski still hasn’t found the back of the net while Portugal haven’t actually won a game in 90 minutes, their last 16 victory over Croatia coming in extra time. Yet thanks to the nature of the draw both sides stand a reasonable chance of reaching the final, with Spreadex offering respectable Outright Index spreads of 49-52 and 38-41 for Portugal and Poland respectively.



To varying degrees each country is centred around their aforementioned (misfiring) star men, so Thursday’s result may well come down to who out of Lewandowksi and Ronaldo re-finds their form. The Polish striker heads into the quarter-final at a meagre Super Mega PGM of 13-17, a big drop from his group stage spreads (when he was still considered a contender for the Golden Boot). His petulant Portuguese rival fares better, understandably since Ronaldo found the back of the net twice against Hungary, heading to the Stade Velodrome at a Super Mega PGM of 34-40.

Of course if both men fail to perform (and given their showing in the last 4 games that is more than a possibility) Poland and Portugal will have to turn to their smaller stars. For the former Ajax’s Arkadiusz Milik and Borussia Dortmund’s Jakub Blaszczykowski have shown the most promise, heading into Thursday night at Super Mega PGMs of 10-14 and 7-10 respectively. For the latter Nani has arguably been their best player going forwards, the former Man United star heading into the quarter-final at 11-15.

With Poland being forced to penalties by Switzerland, and Portugal taken to extra time by Croatia, both sides could be in for the long haul on Thursday night. Our traders think the latter can just about edge it in 90 minutes, however, offering a Portugal/Poland Goal Supremacy spread of 0.2-0.4, but with a Portual/Poland Extra Time Supremacy spread of 0-0.1.

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