Andrew Mount's Racing Tips 14.09.23

The action hots up on Thursday (September 14th) – it’s the first day of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting – and Andrew has two recommended bets/trades.

DONCASTER 1.15

AS IF BY CHANCE could have done without the rain earlier this week (at the time of writing the Doncaster going was described as ‘soft’) but his latest win came on officially good to soft going and a strong pace is probably more important to him than underfoot conditions for this hold-up performer. They look sure to go quick up front in this 15-runner 6f apprentice handicap, with ABATE, ANTIPHON and the blinkered first time JUMP THE GUN all candidates for putting pace to the race. He was only ninth at Windsor last time but was ridden closer to the front end than usual under a 7lb claimer who was riding him for the first time and it’s good to see Alax Jary, who rode him to his latest win, return to the saddle. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or take a fixed odds price.

Recommendation: Back AS IF BY CHANCE in Doncaster 1.50

EPSOM 4.35

The Tom Clover-trained SAPRISTI is likely to be popular in the betting for this 1m4f handicap, having found only the progressive Major Major too good over a similar trip at Windsor on last month’s stable debut. However, her yard’s handicappers have underperformed as a group, landing 82 of their 757 starts (10.8%) for a loss of £253.42 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 95.78, actual/expected = 0.86). Those who ran without headgear, like Sapristi does here, have an actual/expected figure of 0.67 (-53.2% on turnover). Throw in her tricky low draw in stall 2 and SAPRISTI looks value to sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.

Recommendation: Oppose SAPRISTI in Epsom 4.35

Please note that the picks recommended in this blog post are based on past performance and should not be considered a guarantee for future winning outcomes, and it is important to remember that spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. The views within this preview are those of Andrew Mount, professional tipster and journalist, and not those of Spreadex.