Ukraine v England, Belgium v Italy, Switzerland v Spain, Czech Rep v Denmark, What Happens Next?

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QUARTER FINAL PREVIEWS

EURO 2020 has now whittled down to the final eight remaining teams, with some big-name nations being joined by some surprising underdogs. With three of the four 3rd-placed teams from the group stages still remaining, and the World Champions France and EURO 2016 champions Portugal already fallen by the wayside, these Euros have once again proven that there are no certainties in football, and anything can happen on any given day.

With that being said, England will be full of confidence and belief that this may well be their year. Facing a winnable – on paper – quarter final with Ukraine in Rome, and then potentially a semi-final at Wembley with Denmark or the Czech Republic, and a final with either Belgium, Italy, Spain or Switzerland, the Three Lions surely have their greatest chance to win a major tournament in many a year.

However, a lot of football will need to be played to get to that point, and Spreadex take a look at each of the four quarter final matches, with statistics and odds.

THE CHANCE OF A LIFETIME FOR ENGLAND?

Ukraine v England, Saturday 8pm BBC 1
If the Three Lions were told they would have to beat Ukraine in the quarterfinals and face a semi-final at Wembley against either Denmark or the Czech Republic, most fans would be hard-pressed to have any qualms about such a draw. No team can be overlooked in a major tournament, and especially now at the latter stages, but England can surely not have expected such a favourable draw against teams that they should, at the very least on paper, beat handily.

After reaching this stage without conceding a goal – coincidentally just as they did in the World Cup winning run in 1966 – England will be very happy with the defensive solidity that has been shown so far. Although perhaps pragmatic in his line-ups, Gareth Southgate has instilled an organisation and toughness into the side, and it is hard to argue with the results. With that being said, the flip-side is the comparative lack of goals at the other end.

With just 4 goals scored so far, England have the lowest tally of any of the teams left in the tournament. Star striker Harry Kane has not been firing as expected, and most of the load has been on winger Raheem Sterling after his crucial strikes against Croatia, Czech Republic, and of course Germany. Can Sterling get on the scoresheet once again here? We have Sterling SMMs at 31-37, and Raheem Sterling To Score First & Harry Kane To Score Last at 12/1 on the fixed odds.

Ukraine have been perhaps the surprise package of the tournament so far and are somewhat of an enigma. Andriy Shevchenko’s side have shown moments of brilliance, but also moments of defensive vulnerability and indifferent periods lacking quality. We speak to our resident Ukrainian football expert for the lowdown on the underdogs and what England should expect – or fear – in the quarter finals.

“Ukraine sneaked through as the worst of the 3rd-placed teams from the group stages, but it seemed to have worked out as a Shevchenko masterstroke! Avoiding a round of 16 tie with Italy (and being on the harder side of the draw) has worked out in favour of the team, who are now the lone survivors from their group. After the euphoria of the last-gasp extra-time victory over Sweden, who let’s not forget topped their group over Spain, will likely give them a huge boost of confidence heading into this tie.

The team have already exceeded expectations by getting to this stage and will essentially have a free hit at what would be an almighty shock against England. The Three Lions will need to avoid any complacency, as Ukraine can be a dangerous and spirited side on their day, with the quality of Man City’s Oleksandr Zinchenko, West Ham’s Andriy Yarmolenko and Atalanta’s Ruslan Malinovskiy. However, that trio are all left-footed, so it will be key for England to try and force them on their right, which will negate much of the danger.

Striker Roman Yaremchuk is powerful and a good finisher, but can be isolated from the game if the supply into him is cut. Depending on the system Ukraine play, their wingbacks are usually the weakest area of the team, and it will be crucial for England to use their talent and pace on the flanks to cause big problems for Ukraine.

Left-back Vitaliy Mykolenko is young and prone to positional errors, while the right-back Oleksandr Karavaev is more of a right midfielder rather than defender, and the right side can be exploited both offensively and defensively, as Yarmolenko will not want to track back, but can be isolated from the game as he was by David Alaba v Austria.

The goalkeeper is an excellent shot-stopper but can be prone to errors and lapses in concentration, so England can try to exploit this by attempting crosses into the danger area for players like Kane to attack. In terms of substitutes, winger Viktor Tsygankov is pacey and can be dangerous on his day – he scored from a breakaway in Ukraine’s recent 1-0 win over Spain in the Nations League.

Overall, England have more quality and more experience, and their defensive solidity should see them through here, but Ukraine should not be underestimated – they have shown they can beat big teams and qualified for the EUROs unbeaten in their qualifying group and beat reigning champions Portugal – holding out the win for half an hour with 10 men.

Shevchenko’s men are dangerous on the counter and it is crucial to stop Yarmolenko, Zinchenko and Malinovskiy from finding time and space on their left foot, and it will be important to press the shaky and inexperienced back line, from which cheap errors could arrive.”

England have only lost once in their previous H2Hs with Ukraine, and that was a dead rubber in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, when the Three Lions had already securing qualification. There was another notable victory in the EURO 2012 group stages, in which England knocked Ukraine out of their home tournament with a controversial 1-0 victory. Ukraine thought they had scored an equaliser which had crossed the line, but it was not given in the pre-VAR era.

In terms of the spreads, England start as heavy favourites with a Goal Supremacy spread of 1.2-1.4, with Total Goals at 2.4-2.6, and Total Goal Mins at 122-132. On the fixed odds, England are at 2/5 to get the job done in 90mins, and 1/6 to qualify for the semis. Ukraine are at 17/2 to win in regular time, and 4/1 to qualify. The Draw, and a subsequent extra-time, is at 10/3. If business gets down to the nail-biting situation of a penalty shootout, both sides are available at 10/1.

THE OTHER QUARTER-FINALS

Switzerland v Spain, Friday 5pm ITV 1
When Switzerland missed a penalty while leading 1-0, the omens did not look good. They looked even worse when France scored a quick-fire double through Karim Benzema and went 3-1 up after a wonder strike from Paul Pogba. However, the Swiss had clearly not read the script, and somehow battled their way back to 3-3 to force extra time, eventually winning on penalties after Kylian Mbappe missed his sudden-death effort.

Spain almost suffered the same fate as the French, somehow letting slip a 3-1 lead, but managed to re-compose themselves and secure an incredible 5-3 victory over 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia. Luis Enrique’s side have been enigmatic so far in this competition, to say the least, and do not boast the same kind of marquee names that filled their squads in the glory years of 2008-2012, but they are a typical Spain side which is fantastically adept at keeping the ball and have certainly found their shooting boots after scoring 5 goals in consecutive matches.

These sides met twice recently in the latest rendition of the Nations League, and both matches were tight affairs. One ended in a 1-1 draw, while the other was a tight 1-0 victory for Spain. Based on both sides’ Round of 16 performances, this may well be another tightly contested match, with another potential shock certainly not off the table.

Spreadex are offering a Spain/Switzerland Goal Supremacy spread of 0.85-1.05, making La Furia Roja the pre-match favourites. However, both of these sides’ previous matches finished 3-3, so will there be another high-scoring match here? Total Goals are at a conservative pre-match spread of 2.6-2.8, along with Total Goal Mins at 133-143. On the fixed odds, Spain are at 13/20 to win or 2/7 to qualify, with Switzerland at 19/4 to cause another shock within 90mins, or 13/5 to qualify. The Draw is at 14/5.

Belgium v Italy, Friday 8pm BBC 1
Friday evening’s contest is arguably the marquee tie of the quarterfinals, with one of the tournament favourites definitely going out, while another will make a huge statement of intent. Italy are riding a 31-match unbeaten run, and their defence was only breached after another long clean-sheet streak against Austria in extra-time in the round of 16.

Belgium, on the other hand, have been perhaps the most impressive team of the tournament so far, going through the group-stages with three wins from three – just like Italy – but grabbing an impressive victory over the reigning champions Portugal in the round of 16. The Belgians will be full of confidence, and eager to prove why they are the number one ranked side in the world.

However, a lot will depend on the fitness of two of Belgium’s star men. With Kevin de Bruyne and Eden Hazard both questionable and at risk of missing this match, Belgium’s chances could fluctuate massively on the outcome of late fitness tests for the pair. Romelu Lukaku has been one of the tournament star men up front for the ‘Red Devils’, and Belgium undoubtedly have one of the deepest squads in the tournament but missing two key men may well prove the difference between defeat and victory.

In terms of historical precedent, the last 5 matches between these two have never ended in a draw, with 3 wins for Italy and 2 for Belgium. 2 of these matches were at Euros – with a 2-0 win for the Italians at EURO 2000, and another 2-0 victory in the group stages of EURO 2016. With that being said, Italy’s last 3 EURO quarterfinals have gone to penalties, and they lost 2 of these. Both sides are available at 7/1 on the fixed odds to Win the Tie on Penalties.

On the spreads, Italy/Belgium Goal Supremacy is available at 0.15-0.35, with Total Goals at 2-2.2 and Total Goal Mins at 102-112. Italy are at 7/5 to win and 4/6 to qualify on the fixed odds, while Belgium are 5/2 to win and 6/5 to qualify. A first draw between these two since EURO 1980 is available at 2/1.

Czech Republic v Denmark, Saturday 5pm ITV 1
In a matchup that very few would have predicted for the quarterfinals, the Czech underdogs will face a Denmark side fancied as dark horses’ pre-tournament but having to overcome an emotional rollercoaster and difficult circumstances after star-man Christian Eriksen’s cardiac arrest in their first group match, which they ended up losing to Finland and followed up with a tight defeat to Belgium.

The Danes managed to overcome the difficulties though and reached this stage by scoring 4 goals in back-to-back matches and will have growing belief that they could repeat the unlikely heroics of the EURO 1992 winning team. That would be a fairytale ending, but Denmark are facing opposition which has given them issues at this stage before. The Czechs had great success around the end of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st and beat the Danes 3-0 at EURO 2004 in the quarters.

Since then, however, Draws have been the most common result in the H2Hs between these two. In 6 matches since that EURO 2004 quarter final, 5 have been draws, with one 3-0 victory for Denmark. All in all, these sides seem to be extremely well-matched, and this could well be a tie that is decided beyond the initial 90 minutes. The Draw is available at 9/4, with the Czechs at 11/1 to win in extra-time, and 15/2 on penalties. Denmark are available at 15/2 for both an extra-time OR penalties victory.

Czech striker Patrik Schick needs just one more goal to equal his countryman Milan Baros’ tally at a EURO finals, and he is available at 9/4 to score anytime, and with a PGM spread of 14-17. In terms of the match spreads, Denmark are favoured with a Goal Supremacy spread of 0.3-0.5, with Total Goals at 2.15-2.35 and Total Goal Mins at 110-120. Denmark are available at 11/10 to win in 90mins, while the Czechs are at 14/5. The winner of this tie will of course face either England or Ukraine in the semis.


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