Italy v Spain semi-final preview, What Happens Next? and more

Lionel Messi stands over a late free-kick on the very edge of the box in the Copa America, with all angles seemingly covered by the wall or 'keeper - What Happens Next?

PREVIEW: SEMI FINAL 1

ITALY V SPAIN, 8PM BBC 1

The first EURO 2020 finalist will be decided by the end of this evening at Wembley, with arguably the most impressive side of the tournament so far in Italy facing a Spain side who has defied the doubters to overcome a shaky start to the group stages to go from strength to strength, potentially peaking at the right time. With Roberto Mancini's Italy riding a long 32-match unbeaten run and a thoroughly settled team filled with a blend of youth and experience, Luis Enrique's Spain have been in a transitional period and boast a selection of players with plenty of talent but limited experience at this level.

On paper, Italy should be heavily favoured to get the job done here. Spain have looked shaky in defence at times, and were fortunate to get past Switzerland on penalties after being on the brink of an exit themselves in the shootout. The Italians' confidence will be at a high after eliminating top-ranked Belgium, and some sort of redemption will surely be in their minds - the Azzurri have only beaten La Furia Roja once in the last 8 H2Hs.

It is difficult to make comparisons with the EURO 2012-winning Spain side and the current one, but Italy will look to right some of the wrongs, while Spain will feel confident of keeping their dominance going, and reaching a 3rd EURO final in the last 4 editions of the tournament.

In terms of the match odds, Italy do start as the favourites. On the fixed odds, they are available at 6/4 to win, and at 8/11 to qualify. Spain are available at 11/5 to win, and at 11/10 to qualify. On the spreads, Spreadex have a very tight Italy/Spain Goal Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.25, along with First Italy Goal at 54.5-57.5 and First Spain Goal at 58-61, which suggests a cagey and tight opening to the game. With that being said, the last H2H featured 2 goals in the first half, the first of which came in the 13th minute. Will there be another early start here?

In terms of goalscorers, this may be harder to predict. Both sides have had multiple players get in on the goalscoring act in this tournament, and there is enough talent on both sides for any of the players to be the hero. However, the finishing of both central strikers may be key. Italy's Ciro Immobile is available at 21/10 to Score Anytime, while Spanish counterpart Alvaro Morata is available at 9/4. With Morata playing against his club-mate centre-backs Chiellini and Bonucci, will he use some training ground secrets to his own benefit, or will the Italian stalwarts keep him quiet?

In a hugely exciting and unpredictable tournament so far, extra-time and penalties are also a distinct possibility. Spain have already played two matches which have gone to extra-time - against Croatia and Switzerland. Will fatigue be an issue? Italy also faced 120 minutes against a tougher-than-expected Austria in their round of 16 clash at Wembley, but avoided that against Belgium, and may be fresher as a result. Italy are 17/2 to win the tie in extra-time, with Spain at 9/1. In the lottery of a potential shootout, Italy are 15/2, with Spain 8/1.

You can see the rest of our spreads and fixed odds markets here. The winner of this 'clash of titans' will face either England or Denmark back at Wembley on Sunday for the EURO crown.

Don't miss tomorrow's Sports Update as we look at England's crucial semi-final with Denmark at Wembley!

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